Udinese Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

-$3.78

Smart Money Entry

93.6¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares18,809

Combined PnL+$371.62

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares9,157

Combined PnL-$375.4

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Overavg 99.9¢	$14.5K	$14.5K	+$7.25	98% 2429-60 (2489)
DA dartanyan150	Overavg 65¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$320	68% 208-96 (304)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 24.6¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$401.75	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
RN1	Overavg 77¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$57.06	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 73¢	$766.83	$842.44	+$75.62	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
└ Over leg	Overavg 73¢	$409.43	$454.43	+$45
└ Under leg	Underavg 17.5¢	$357.4	$388.01	+$30.61
0xheavy888	Overavg 76.5¢	$305.99	$323.99	+$18	56% 6426-5142 (11568)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 98¢	$206.99	$171.08	-$35.91	59% 14202-9839 (24041)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 77¢	$100.43	$105.65	+$5.22	50% 8992-8924 (17916)
SM SmallcoinsCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$15.9	$55.65	+$39.75	52% 944-867 (1811)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 77.9¢	$53.65	$50.49	-$3.16	51% 6859-6549 (13408)
└ Over leg	Overavg 77.9¢	$28.81	$29.97	+$1.16
└ Under leg	Underavg 23¢	$24.84	$20.52	-$4.32
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$57.5	$47.5	-$10	56% 2071-1630 (3701)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$29.94	$29.18	-$0.77	53% 13662-12114 (25776)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$3.85	$3.05	-$0.8	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$3.99	$2.17	-$1.82	57% 1726-1316 (3042)

CoinTrick

Over

Invested

$14,487.3

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$7.25

Record

98%

2429-60 (2489)

dartanyan150

Over

Invested

$1,300

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$320

Record

68%

208-96 (304)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,757.53

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$401.75

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,270.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$57.06

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$766.83

Value

$842.44

PnL

+$75.62

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

Both legs:

Over$409.4373¢+$45

Under$357.417.5¢+$30.61

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$305.99

Value

$323.99

PnL

+$18

Record

56%

6426-5142 (11568)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$206.99

Value

$171.08

PnL

-$35.91

Record

59%

14202-9839 (24041)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$100.43

Value

$105.65

PnL

+$5.22

Record

50%

8992-8924 (17916)

SmallcoinsCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.9

Value

$55.65

PnL

+$39.75

Record

52%

944-867 (1811)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$53.65

Value

$50.49

PnL

-$3.16

Record

51%

6859-6549 (13408)

Both legs:

Over$28.8177.9¢+$1.16

Under$24.8423¢-$4.32

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.5

Value

$47.5

PnL

-$10

Record

56%

2071-1630 (3701)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.18

PnL

-$0.77

Record

53%

13662-12114 (25776)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$0.8

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.99

Value

$2.17

PnL

-$1.82

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.