Udinese Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 0.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$0.52

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares8,401

Combined PnL-$12.29

Under3 traders

Total Value$155.52

Total Shares2,222

Combined PnL+$12.8

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Overavg 99.9¢	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$4	98% 2423-60 (2483)
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 98¢	$319.21	$302.92	-$16.29	75% 2398-790 (3188)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 6¢	$92.14	$107.5	+$15.36	50% 8953-8892 (17845)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 93¢	$69.74	$69.74	-$0	54% 13985-11704 (25689)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 7.4¢	$45.25	$42.69	-$2.55	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$5.33	$5.33	+$0	59% 14139-9811 (23950)

CoinTrick

Over

Invested

$7,992

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$4

Record

98%

2423-60 (2483)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$319.21

Value

$302.92

PnL

-$16.29

Record

75%

2398-790 (3188)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$92.14

Value

$107.5

PnL

+$15.36

Record

50%

8953-8892 (17845)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$69.74

Value

$69.74

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.25

Value

$42.69

PnL

-$2.55

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

14139-9811 (23950)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.