Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold AC Milan (43%) · AC Milan at 82¢ · $769 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
AC Milan
7
AC Milan 43%
$768.84
$83.17
39.1¢ → 82¢
+110% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAC Milan at 82%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | AC Milanavg 35.2¢ | $173.26 | $359.29 | +$186.03 | 68% 31694-15247 (46941) |
FO foooool | AC Milanavg 48¢ | $100 | $152.08 | +$52.08 | 51% 6859-6549 (13408) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Udinese Calcioavg 71¢ | $85.82 | $106.66 | -$31.67 | 54% 14075-11776 (25851) |
CA CannaeCTR | Udinese Calcioavg 71¢ | $210.6 | $80.11 | -$130.49 | 53% 13662-12114 (25776) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | AC Milanavg 39.6¢ | $18.88 | $34.83 | +$15.94 | 50% 8992-8924 (17916) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Udinese Calcioavg 19¢ | $16.08 | $22.85 | +$6.77 | 59% 14202-9839 (24041) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Udinese Calcioavg 59.2¢ | $28.52 | $13.02 | -$15.5 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
Invested
$173.26
Value
$359.29
PnL
+$186.03
Record
68%
31694-15247 (46941)
Invested
$100
Value
$152.08
PnL
+$52.08
Record
51%
6859-6549 (13408)
Invested
$85.82
Value
$106.66
PnL
-$31.67
Record
54%
14075-11776 (25851)
Invested
$210.6
Value
$80.11
PnL
-$130.49
Record
53%
13662-12114 (25776)
Invested
$18.88
Value
$34.83
PnL
+$15.94
Record
50%
8992-8924 (17916)
Invested
$16.08
Value
$22.85
PnL
+$6.77
Record
59%
14202-9839 (24041)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$28.52
Value
$13.02
PnL
-$15.5
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.