AC Milan leading at halftime?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

78.2¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares6,620

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No2 traders

Total Value$9.46

Total Shares73

Combined PnL-$33.47

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 79.4¢	$5.1K	$6.4K	+$1.3K	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
FO Forecastication2	Yesavg 41¢	$85.28	$185.12	+$85.28	61% 4694-2945 (7639)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$9.3	$10	+$0.7	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$37.17	$8.19	-$28.98	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$5.76	$1.27	-$4.49	58% 32272-23432 (55704)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$5,081.61

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

Forecastication2

Yes

Invested

$85.28

Value

$185.12

PnL

+$85.28

Record

61%

4694-2945 (7639)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.3

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.7

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$37.17

Value

$8.19

PnL

-$28.98

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$5.76

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$4.49

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.