Udinese Calcio vs. AC Milan: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,241

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over2 traders

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares122

Combined PnL-$12.4

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 85.5¢	$5.1K	$5.9K	+$853.72	72% 1868-738 (2606)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 47.6¢	$343.19	$721.25	+$378.06	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
RN1	Underavg 58.9¢	$377.53	$592.6	+$215.06	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 66¢	$100.22	$93.12	-$7.11	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66¢	$51.05	$60.34	+$9.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 33¢	$49.17	$32.78	-$16.39
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 10.6¢	$10.96	$0.05	-$10.91	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$1.5	$0.01	-$1.49	57% 1726-1316 (3042)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$5,069.91

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$853.72

Record

72%

1868-738 (2606)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$343.19

Value

$721.25

PnL

+$378.06

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

RN1

Under

Invested

$377.53

Value

$592.6

PnL

+$215.06

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$100.22

Value

$93.12

PnL

-$7.11

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

Both legs:

Invested

$10.96

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$10.91

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.49

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.