Exact Score: Udinese Calcio 0 - 3 AC Milan?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 87¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$11.6K
-$109.54
88.1¢ → 87.1¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $9.3K | $9.2K | -$77.23 | 55% 44235-36462 (80697) |
0X 0x30E4E574AF95340e873444bCa776d4D9372b8744-1770499771900CTR | Yesavg 14.4¢ | $2.5K | $2.3K | -$34.2 | — 7-7 (14) |
SA Saber-greed<$100 | Noavg 89.3¢ | $84.73 | $82.64 | +$1.04 | 59% 2304-1597 (3901) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Noavg 84.3¢ | $25.29 | $26.13 | +$0.84 | 47% 3669-4131 (7800) |
RN1Invested
$9,321.81
Value
$9.2K
PnL
-$77.23
Record
55%
44235-36462 (80697)
Invested
$2,537.3
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$34.2
Record
—
7-7 (14)
Invested
$84.73
Value
$82.64
PnL
+$1.04
Record
59%
2304-1597 (3901)
Invested
$25.29
Value
$26.13
PnL
+$0.84
Record
47%
3669-4131 (7800)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.