Will Udinese Calcio vs. AC Milan end in a draw?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 97¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 97¢

+24% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,588

Combined PnL+$110.1

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares7,020

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 81.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$38.92	57% 1494-1105 (2599)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 26.2¢	$2.5K	$1.3K	$-1.2K	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
us391	Noavg 74¢	$748.97	$829.94	-$5.06	51% 1372-1295 (2667)
CA Cannae	Noavg 74¢	$408.48	$452.64	+$44.16	53% 13662-12114 (25776)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 82.3¢	$258.08	$289.5	+$31.41	53% 12354-11052 (23406)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$22.61	$26.95	+$4.34	50% 7851-7906 (15757)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.8¢	$9.72	$17.6	+$7.88	58% 16247-11869 (28116)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.6¢	$27.04	$16.92	-$8.53	57% 1726-1316 (3042)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$18.9	$10.27	-$8.63	55% 44235-36462 (80697)
AN Anon455<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.26	$4.42	+$0.16	56% 2071-1630 (3701)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.7	$4.2	+$0.5	55% 4953-4129 (9082)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,402.47

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$38.92

Record

57%

1494-1105 (2599)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,501.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

us391

Invested

$748.97

Value

$829.94

PnL

-$5.06

Record

51%

1372-1295 (2667)

Cannae

Invested

$408.48

Value

$452.64

PnL

+$44.16

Record

53%

13662-12114 (25776)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$258.08

Value

$289.5

PnL

+$31.41

Record

53%

12354-11052 (23406)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.61

Value

$26.95

PnL

+$4.34

Record

50%

7851-7906 (15757)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.72

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$7.88

Record

58%

16247-11869 (28116)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.04

Value

$16.92

PnL

-$8.53

Record

57%

1726-1316 (3042)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.9

Value

$10.27

PnL

-$8.63

Record

55%

44235-36462 (80697)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.42

PnL

+$0.16

Record

56%

2071-1630 (3701)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.5

Record

55%

4953-4129 (9082)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.