Udinese Calcio vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 76¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$90.84

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 76¢

+51% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,094

Combined PnL-$105.24

Yes1 trader

Total Value$187.04

Total Shares353

Combined PnL+$14.41

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 50.9¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$106.79	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 48.9¢	$172.63	$187.04	+$14.41	51% 6859-6549 (13408)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 45.2¢	$157.24	$124.2	+$5.31	58% 32272-23432 (55704)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 45¢	$37.35	$34.03	-$3.32	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Noavg 47¢	$2.82	$2.46	-$0.45	61% 4694-2945 (7639)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,523.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$106.79

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$172.63

Value

$187.04

PnL

+$14.41

Record

51%

6859-6549 (13408)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$157.24

Value

$124.2

PnL

+$5.31

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$37.35

Value

$34.03

PnL

-$3.32

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

Forecastication2<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$0.45

Record

61%

4694-2945 (7639)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.