Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-27?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 59¢ · $47K held · ends Oct 27

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$47.4K

Combined PnL

$124.7

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 58.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$36.0K

Total Shares61,019

Combined PnL+$403.13

No7 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares27,770

Combined PnL-$278.43

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradona	Yesavg 58.3¢	$35.6K	$36.0K	+$403.06	— 6-4 (10)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 42¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$150	47% 2366-2633 (4999)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 41.1¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$32.9	50% 11913-12075 (23988)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Noavg 42¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$34.33	53% 5465-4807 (10272)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 42.5¢	$830.04	$787.43	-$36.41	58% 40340-29132 (69472)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 41.9¢	$712.59	$689.46	-$23.13	53% 15678-13855 (29533)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 42¢	$142.35	$140.68	-$1.66	58% 27838-20469 (48307)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$64.78	$64.78	+$0	54% 2513-2131 (4644)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$2.52	$2.7	+$0.07	65% 1647-893 (2540)

hovistomaradona

Yes

Invested

$35,595.59

Value

$36.0K

PnL

+$403.06

Record

—

6-4 (10)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$6,300

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$150

Record

47%

2366-2633 (4999)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$2,155.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$32.9

Record

50%

11913-12075 (23988)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Invested

$1,442

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$34.33

Record

53%

5465-4807 (10272)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$830.04

Value

$787.43

PnL

-$36.41

Record

58%

40340-29132 (69472)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$712.59

Value

$689.46

PnL

-$23.13

Record

53%

15678-13855 (29533)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$142.35

Value

$140.68

PnL

-$1.66

Record

58%

27838-20469 (48307)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$64.78

Value

$64.78

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2513-2131 (4644)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.07

Record

65%

1647-893 (2540)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.