Will SS Lazio win on 2026-10-27?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$41.29

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 54.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,766

Combined PnL+$41.29

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 56.2¢	$972.13	$955.19	+$37.56	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 56¢	$41.56	$43.42	+$1.86	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 56¢	$21.84	$22.81	+$0.97	57% 23972-18438 (42410)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 54¢	$9.18	$9.95	+$0.77	50% 9301-9249 (18550)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 54¢	$1.62	$1.76	+$0.13	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$972.13

Value

$955.19

PnL

+$37.56

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$41.56

Value

$43.42

PnL

+$1.86

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$21.84

Value

$22.81

PnL

+$0.97

Record

57%

23972-18438 (42410)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$9.18

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$0.77

Record

50%

9301-9249 (18550)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.