Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Cagliari Calcio (50%) · Cagliari Calcio at 53¢ · $36 held · ends Oct 27

AS Roma48¢Cagliari Calcio52¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cagliari Calcio

Consensus Traders

Cagliari Calcio 50%

Total Value

$36.32

Combined PnL

-$0.14

Research grade

NeutralCagliari Calcio at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cagliari Calcio

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

AS Roma48%

Cagliari Calcio53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cagliari Calcio2 traders

Total Value$20.15

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$0.21

AS Roma2 traders

Total Value$16.17

Total Shares33

Combined PnL+$0.08

Cagliari Calcio — 50%AS Roma — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA Cannae<$100	Cagliari Calcioavg 51¢	$18.51	$19.05	-$0.18	53% 15678-13855 (29533)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	AS Romaavg 49¢	$14.7	$14.7	+$0	50% 6736-6737 (13473)
HRTradingCTR<$100	AS Romaavg 47¢	$1.41	$1.47	+$0.08	54% 2513-2131 (4644)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Cagliari Calcioavg 52¢	$1.08	$1.09	-$0.03	58% 27838-20469 (48307)

Cannae<$100

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$18.51

Value

$19.05

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

15678-13855 (29533)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$14.7

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6736-6737 (13473)

HRTradingCTR<$100

AS Roma

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

2513-2131 (4644)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Cagliari Calcio

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

27838-20469 (48307)

Research grade

NeutralCagliari Calcio at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Cagliari Calcio

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cagliari Calcio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.