Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-27?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 73¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 27

Yes73¢No27¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$19.0K

Combined PnL

$249.27

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 72.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes73%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$18.5K

Total Shares25,010

Combined PnL+$245.24

No3 traders

Total Value$518.41

Total Shares1,928

Combined PnL+$4.03

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 73¢	$18.0K	$18.3K	+$246.86	65% 1570-841 (2411)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 27¢	$308.55	$314.26	+$5.71	53% 13952-12306 (26258)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123	Yesavg 73¢	$236.7	$236.7	-$1.62	61% 42-27 (69)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 26.5¢	$354.45	$188.81	-$1.09	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$15.94	$15.35	-$0.59	49% 11336-11694 (23030)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$18,020.54

Value

$18.3K

PnL

+$246.86

Record

65%

1570-841 (2411)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$308.55

Value

$314.26

PnL

+$5.71

Record

53%

13952-12306 (26258)

PLACEYOURBETS123

Yes

Invested

$236.7

Value

$236.7

PnL

-$1.62

Record

61%

42-27 (69)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$354.45

Value

$188.81

PnL

-$1.09

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$15.94

Value

$15.35

PnL

-$0.59

Record

49%

11336-11694 (23030)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.