Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$1.6K
-$10
90.5¢ → 90¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x332a020cfAB56b019B470cA47B63fDA745D6c9a2-1724751213873 | Noavg 91¢ | $910 | $900 | -$10 | 40% 101-151 (252) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90¢ | $450 | $450 | +$0 | 58% 32399-23548 (55947) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Noavg 90¢ | $277.84 | $277.84 | +$0 | 57% 4546-3373 (7919) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.