Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 0.5¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$942.03

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares10,538

Combined PnL-$170.99

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares4,813

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH Shimi1234CTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$135.39	40% 69-105 (174)
RN1	Underavg 52¢	$1.7K	$2.7K	+$940.78	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 67.9¢	$913.62	$1.0K	+$116.33	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
AN Anon455	Underavg 53¢	$132.5	$136.25	+$3.75	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 51¢	$86.7	$124.1	+$37.4	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$88.68	$50.94	-$37.74	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 54¢	$25.21	$33.73	+$8.52	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 50¢	$13.72	$18.5	+$4.77	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 65.2¢	$3.23	$4.71	+$1.48	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 28.9¢	$31.82	$3.02	+$2.14	58% 31904-23124 (55028)

Shimi1234CTR

Over

Invested

$4,839.62

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$135.39

Record

40%

69-105 (174)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,718.09

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$940.78

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$913.62

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$116.33

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$132.5

Value

$136.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$86.7

Value

$124.1

PnL

+$37.4

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.68

Value

$50.94

PnL

-$37.74

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$25.21

Value

$33.73

PnL

+$8.52

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$13.72

Value

$18.5

PnL

+$4.77

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.23

Value

$4.71

PnL

+$1.48

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.82

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$2.14

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.