Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (79%). 8 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 21¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 25

Over79¢Under21¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

$939.85

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 21¢

-57% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over79%

Under21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares20,939

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,614

Combined PnL-$146.77

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KI kip3366CTR	Underavg 49¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$240	46% 40-47 (87)
ZH zhuz632CTR	Underavg 49¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$226	50% 227-223 (450)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b	Overavg 51¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$220	55% 163-131 (294)
FF ff3364CTR	Underavg 48.8¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$148.39	51% 691-664 (1355)
LE leungchihangCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$442.05	54% 37-32 (69)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 51.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$85.5	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 56¢	$495	$530	+$35	51% 998-954 (1952)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 55¢	$527.34	$508.59	-$18.76	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$411.71	$397.62	-$14.08	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$323.36	$297.99	-$25.36
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$88.35	$99.63	+$11.28
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 52¢	$203.38	$199.47	+$5.87	65% 1543-826 (2369)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 46¢	$124.59	$130.91	+$6.32	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$75.01	$86.42	+$11.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.4¢	$49.58	$44.48	-$5.1
HRTrading	Overavg 51¢	$113.98	$104.93	-$9.04	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$85.8	$96.75	+$10.95	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
RN1<$100	Overavg 59.5¢	$68.4	$60.56	-$7.85	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Overavg 50.2¢	$27.97	$26.71	-$1.25	65% 12565-6695 (19260)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$19.59	$22.57	+$2.98	51% 6631-6378 (13009)

kip3366CTR

Under

Invested

$2,940

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$240

Record

46%

40-47 (87)

zhuz632CTR

Under

Invested

$2,768.5

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$226

Record

50%

227-223 (450)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b

Over

Invested

$2,805

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$220

Record

55%

163-131 (294)

ff3364CTR

Under

Invested

$1,742.36

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$148.39

Record

51%

691-664 (1355)

leungchihangCTR

Under

Invested

$1,432.25

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$442.05

Record

54%

37-32 (69)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$1,252.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$85.5

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$495

Value

$530

PnL

+$35

Record

51%

998-954 (1952)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$527.34

Value

$508.59

PnL

-$18.76

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

CannaeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$411.71

Value

$397.62

PnL

-$14.08

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

Both legs:

Over$323.3651¢-$25.36

Under$88.3547¢+$11.28

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$203.38

Value

$199.47

PnL

+$5.87

Record

65%

1543-826 (2369)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$124.59

Value

$130.91

PnL

+$6.32

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Both legs:

Under$75.0146¢+$11.41

Over$49.5852.4¢-$5.1

HRTrading

Over

Invested

$113.98

Value

$104.93

PnL

-$9.04

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.8

Value

$96.75

PnL

+$10.95

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$68.4

Value

$60.56

PnL

-$7.85

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Lilybaeum<$100

Over

Invested

$27.97

Value

$26.71

PnL

-$1.25

Record

65%

12565-6695 (19260)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.59

Value

$22.57

PnL

+$2.98

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$337.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

437.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.