Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Juventus FC, while the market favors US Lecce (62%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Juventus FC (100%) · Juventus FC at 38¢ · $915 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Juventus FC
3
Juventus FC 100%
$915.45
-$5.6
38.3¢ → 38¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJuventus FC at 38%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors US Lecce 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Juventus FCavg 38.2¢ | $871.28 | $866.52 | -$4.76 | 52% 16269-14809 (31078) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Juventus FCavg 38.7¢ | $44.24 | $40.06 | -$0.24 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
0X 0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR<$100 | Juventus FCavg 40¢ | $9.6 | $8.88 | -$0.6 | 38% 153-253 (406) |
Invested
$871.28
Value
$866.52
PnL
-$4.76
Record
52%
16269-14809 (31078)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$44.24
Value
$40.06
PnL
-$0.24
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$8.88
PnL
-$0.6
Record
38%
153-253 (406)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.