Will US Lecce win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 86¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$23.45

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 86¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,197

Combined PnL-$31.76

Yes1 trader

Total Value$849.6

Total Shares6,069

Combined PnL+$8.3

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 87¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$30	69% 1702-781 (2483)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 13.4¢	$810.97	$849.6	+$8.3	52% 16225-14766 (30991)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 86.9¢	$164.01	$162.25	-$1.76	65% 1525-819 (2344)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 86¢	$6.88	$6.88	+$0	53% 13575-12013 (25588)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,610

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$30

Record

69%

1702-781 (2483)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$810.97

Value

$849.6

PnL

+$8.3

Record

52%

16225-14766 (30991)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$164.01

Value

$162.25

PnL

-$1.76

Record

65%

1525-819 (2344)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$6.88

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

13575-12013 (25588)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.