Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 65¢ · $42K held · ended Oct 25

Yes65¢No35¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.6K

Combined PnL

-$35.81

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 64.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$33.1K

Total Shares51,791

Combined PnL-$33.57

No5 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares21,092

Combined PnL-$2.24

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 64¢	$26.9K	$26.9K	+$13.84	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Noavg 36.4¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$33.6	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
AN Anon455CTR	Noavg 35.7¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$25	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
LF lfg100k	Yesavg 65¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$44.43	62% 462-283 (745)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 63.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10.03	57% 1460-1082 (2542)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Yesavg 64.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$15	51% 985-937 (1922)
StudyPredictionCTR	Noavg 36¢	$720	$720	+$0	51% 3605-3468 (7073)
HRTrading	Yesavg 63.4¢	$427.89	$431.68	+$3.79	57% 1506-1114 (2620)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 63.8¢	$422.91	$426.59	+$3.68	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.8¢	$325.59	$326.49	+$0.9
└ No leg	Noavg 35¢	$97.31	$100.09	+$2.78
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 64.1¢	$299.13	$303.32	+$3.14	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64.1¢	$242.82	$242.57	-$2.15
└ No leg	Noavg 33.4¢	$56.31	$60.76	+$5.29
PL PLACEYOURBETS123	Yesavg 64¢	$226.4	$226.4	+$0	57% 31-23 (54)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Noavg 35¢	$209.66	$215.65	+$5.99	65% 12556-6677 (19233)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 36.7¢	$129.14	$127.4	-$1.74	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
└ No leg	Noavg 36.7¢	$91.38	$89.64	-$1.74
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64¢	$37.76	$37.76	+$0
0X 0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660	Yesavg 65¢	$117	$115.2	-$1.8	22% 47-167 (214)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$36.2	$36.2	+$0	59% 13959-9681 (23640)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$6.18	$6.55	+$0.36	53% 12247-10971 (23218)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$26,915.47

Value

$26.9K

PnL

+$13.84

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Invested

$3,393.73

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$33.6

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$3,265.77

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$25

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

lfg100k

Yes

Invested

$2,888

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$44.43

Record

62%

462-283 (745)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$1,273.81

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10.03

Record

57%

1460-1082 (2542)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Yes

Invested

$1,295

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$15

Record

51%

985-937 (1922)

StudyPredictionCTR

Invested

$720

Value

$720

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3605-3468 (7073)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$427.89

Value

$431.68

PnL

+$3.79

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$422.91

Value

$426.59

PnL

+$3.68

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Both legs:

Invested

$299.13

Value

$303.32

PnL

+$3.14

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

Both legs:

Yes$242.8264.1¢-$2.15

No$56.3133.4¢+$5.29

PLACEYOURBETS123

Yes

Invested

$226.4

Value

$226.4

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

31-23 (54)

LilybaeumCTR

Invested

$209.66

Value

$215.65

PnL

+$5.99

Record

65%

12556-6677 (19233)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$129.14

Value

$127.4

PnL

-$1.74

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

Both legs:

No$91.3836.7¢-$1.74

Yes$37.7664¢+$0

0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660

Yes

Invested

$117

Value

$115.2

PnL

-$1.8

Record

22%

47-167 (214)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.2

Value

$36.2

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

13959-9681 (23640)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$6.18

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$0.36

Record

53%

12247-10971 (23218)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.