Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$373.27

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,384

Combined PnL-$370.53

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.92

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$2.74

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR	Underavg 78¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$387.6	72% 1847-728 (2575)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 24.4¢	$888.17	$1.0K	+$127.17	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
└ Over leg	Overavg 24.4¢	$492.34	$666.38	+$174.04
└ Under leg	Underavg 76¢	$395.83	$348.96	-$46.88
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 65¢	$553.29	$570.31	+$17.02	57% 4484-3315 (7799)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 74.1¢	$346.23	$348.01	+$1.78	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
└ Under leg	Underavg 74.1¢	$307.32	$278.05	-$29.27
└ Over leg	Overavg 18.4¢	$38.91	$69.96	+$31.05
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 24¢	$2.16	$2.97	+$0.81	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 65¢	$1.56	$1.61	+$0.05	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 90¢	$4.5	$0.95	-$3.55	95% 14059-804 (14863)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72CTR

Under

Invested

$2,752.93

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$387.6

Record

72%

1847-728 (2575)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$888.17

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$127.17

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Both legs:

Over$492.3424.4¢+$174.04

Under$395.8376¢-$46.88

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$553.29

Value

$570.31

PnL

+$17.02

Record

57%

4484-3315 (7799)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$346.23

Value

$348.01

PnL

+$1.78

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Both legs:

Under$307.3274.1¢-$29.27

Over$38.9118.4¢+$31.05

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.81

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$4.5

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$3.55

Record

95%

14059-804 (14863)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.