Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 96¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$597.75

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 95.5¢

+21% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares6,097

Combined PnL+$726.38

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares11,337

Combined PnL-$128.63

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 75¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$550.46	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
oieshfn345	Noavg 83.2¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$194.47	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
KW kwzoCTR	Yesavg 24.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$136.82	45% 59-71 (130)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR	Yesavg 21.1¢	$975.47	$1.0K	+$39.46	53% 1882-1643 (3525)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 86¢	$430	$390	-$40	51% 998-954 (1952)
noosh3CTR	Yesavg 24.6¢	$356.53	$318.95	-$37.58	51% 192-181 (373)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 75¢	$274.21	$285.18	+$10.97	65% 12565-6695 (19260)
AR ARocky33	Noavg 72¢	$145.22	$157.33	+$12.1	76% 3219-1030 (4249)
EG Egorkasxx	Noavg 78¢	$113.88	$113.88	+$0	48% 41-44 (85)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 80.5¢	$100	$104.5	+$3.5	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$90.85	$97.16	+$6.31	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 85¢	$99.96	$91.73	-$8.23	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 77¢	$77.51	$78.1	+$1.32	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
└ No leg	Noavg 77¢	$45.17	$45.76	+$0.59
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22¢	$32.34	$32.34	+$0.74
VeryLucky888	Noavg 77¢	$187.48	$66.19	+$2.43	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 82¢	$12.3	$12.98	+$0.67	55% 4880-4051 (8931)

RN1

Invested

$2,014.35

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$550.46

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,580.71

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$194.47

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

kwzoCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$136.82

Record

45%

59-71 (130)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR

Yes

Invested

$975.47

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$39.46

Record

53%

1882-1643 (3525)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$430

Value

$390

PnL

-$40

Record

51%

998-954 (1952)

noosh3CTR

Yes

Invested

$356.53

Value

$318.95

PnL

-$37.58

Record

51%

192-181 (373)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$274.21

Value

$285.18

PnL

+$10.97

Record

65%

12565-6695 (19260)

ARocky33

Invested

$145.22

Value

$157.33

PnL

+$12.1

Record

76%

3219-1030 (4249)

Egorkasxx

Invested

$113.88

Value

$113.88

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

41-44 (85)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$100

Value

$104.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.85

Value

$97.16

PnL

+$6.31

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

foooool<$100

Invested

$99.96

Value

$91.73

PnL

-$8.23

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$77.51

Value

$78.1

PnL

+$1.32

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Both legs:

No$45.1777¢+$0.59

Yes$32.3422¢+$0.74

VeryLucky888

Invested

$187.48

Value

$66.19

PnL

+$2.43

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$12.3

Value

$12.98

PnL

+$0.67

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.