US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 52¢ · $799 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$799.16
$12.45
50.1¢ → 52¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 49.8¢ | $377.82 | $386.82 | +$9 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 50.7¢ | $110.02 | $110.67 | +$0.65 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
 RN1 | Noavg 51¢ | $101.29 | $101.29 | -$0 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $86.24 | $89.76 | +$2.64 | 56% 6365-5100 (11465) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $74.97 | $74.97 | +$0 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $28.33 | $28.3 | -$0.03 | 53% 13585-12026 (25611) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.4¢ | $5.49 | $5.47 | +$0.12 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $1.81 | $1.89 | +$0.07 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$377.82
Value
$386.82
PnL
+$9
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$110.02
Value
$110.67
PnL
+$0.65
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
RN1Invested
$101.29
Value
$101.29
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$86.24
Value
$89.76
PnL
+$2.64
Record
56%
6365-5100 (11465)
Invested
$74.97
Value
$74.97
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
Invested
$28.33
Value
$28.3
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
13585-12026 (25611)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.49
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$0.12
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$1.89
PnL
+$0.07
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.