Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (69%). 3 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Internazionale Milano vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5

3 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Over (14%) · Over at 32¢ · $218K held · ended Oct 25

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 14%

Total Value

$218.5K

Combined PnL

$4.6K

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 31.5¢

-37% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 32%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 22 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$112.2K

Total Shares219,970

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Under19 traders

Total Value$106.3K

Total Shares206,311

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Over — 14%Under — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

6% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 94% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 94% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO Jokerxing7CTR	Overavg 50¢	$108.9K	$111.1K	+$2.2K	40% 43-65 (108)
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 50¢	$86.0K	$43.4K	+$430	53% 889-782 (1671)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 49¢	$14.1K	$14.1K	-$0	50% 1012-1005 (2017)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 50¢	$13.6K	$13.3K	-$282.46	59% 13855-9624 (23479)
LE leungchihang	Underavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.8K	+$300	51% 33-32 (65)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 53.1¢	$5.9K	$6.8K	+$950.75	52% 16262-14802 (31064)
RN1	Underavg 49.1¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$13.22	55% 43485-35791 (79276)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 53.9¢	$3.9K	$5.0K	+$1.1K	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
Reformedx	Underavg 50¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$21	52% 710-648 (1358)
us391	Underavg 49¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$19.21	52% 1353-1269 (2622)
StudyPrediction	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$980	-$40	51% 3583-3453 (7036)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 49¢	$980	$980	+$0	69% 4251-1917 (6168)
HRTrading	Underavg 50¢	$871.82	$854.38	-$17.44	58% 1451-1066 (2517)
SA Saber-greed	Underavg 50¢	$638.2	$625.44	-$12.76	59% 2260-1573 (3833)
BL Bloodygoodrep1CTR	Overavg 48¢	$559.91	$594.91	+$34.99	48% 37-40 (77)
0X 0xd14650532E11324cdaca20f45666486c24679Bf0-1758702953678	Underavg 49¢	$581.94	$581.94	+$0	35% 381-715 (1096)
BB BBQChickenisthebestttCTR	Overavg 45.5¢	$455	$510	+$55	58% 523-377 (900)
FF ff3364	Underavg 49¢	$286.65	$286.65	+$0	51% 689-662 (1351)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 57¢	$285	$245	-$40	51% 977-931 (1908)
KY Kyn008	Underavg 53¢	$263.7	$243.8	-$19.9	51% 191-186 (377)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 50¢	$41.98	$41.14	-$0.84	66% 2839-1491 (4330)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 65.6¢	$30.8	$32.19	+$1.39	51% 6525-6313 (12838)

Jokerxing7CTR

Over

Invested

$108,900.66

Value

$111.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

40%

43-65 (108)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$86,000

Value

$43.4K

PnL

+$430

Record

53%

889-782 (1671)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$14,142.27

Value

$14.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1012-1005 (2017)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$13,570.96

Value

$13.3K

PnL

-$282.46

Record

59%

13855-9624 (23479)

leungchihang

Under

Invested

$9,800

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$300

Record

51%

33-32 (65)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$5,887.47

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$950.75

Record

52%

16262-14802 (31064)

RN1

Under

Invested

$5,018.48

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$13.22

Record

55%

43485-35791 (79276)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,899.48

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

Reformedx

Under

Invested

$2,100

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$21

Record

52%

710-648 (1358)

us391

Under

Invested

$1,882.48

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$19.21

Record

52%

1353-1269 (2622)

StudyPrediction

Under

Invested

$1,020

Value

$980

PnL

-$40

Record

51%

3583-3453 (7036)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$980

Value

$980

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

4251-1917 (6168)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$871.82

Value

$854.38

PnL

-$17.44

Record

58%

1451-1066 (2517)

Saber-greed

Under

Invested

$638.2

Value

$625.44

PnL

-$12.76

Record

59%

2260-1573 (3833)

Bloodygoodrep1CTR

Over

Invested

$559.91

Value

$594.91

PnL

+$34.99

Record

48%

37-40 (77)

0xd14650532E11324cdaca20f45666486c24679Bf0-1758702953678

Under

Invested

$581.94

Value

$581.94

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

381-715 (1096)

BBQChickenisthebestttCTR

Over

Invested

$455

Value

$510

PnL

+$55

Record

58%

523-377 (900)

ff3364

Under

Invested

$286.65

Value

$286.65

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

689-662 (1351)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$285

Value

$245

PnL

-$40

Record

51%

977-931 (1908)

Kyn008

Under

Invested

$263.7

Value

$243.8

PnL

-$19.9

Record

51%

191-186 (377)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$41.98

Value

$41.14

PnL

-$0.84

Record

66%

2839-1491 (4330)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$30.8

Value

$32.19

PnL

+$1.39

Record

51%

6525-6313 (12838)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 32%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 22 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

6% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 94% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 94% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.