FC Internazionale Milano vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 72¢ · $27K held · ended Oct 25

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.5K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

34.3¢ → 71.5¢

+109% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares23,157

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,061

Combined PnL-$134.47

Under — 64%Over — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 56.6¢	$10.5K	$13.3K	+$2.8K	55% 43485-35791 (79276)
└ Under leg	Underavg 28.4¢	$4.4K	$8.2K	+$3.8K
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.6¢	$6.0K	$5.1K	-$968.78
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 46.1¢	$2.9K	$4.0K	+$1.1K	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 31.7¢	$2.6K	$4.0K	+$1.4K	52% 16262-14802 (31064)
CA Cannae	Underavg 28.5¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$327.18	53% 13576-12017 (25593)
BB BBQChickenisthebestttCTR	Overavg 64¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$123.75	58% 523-377 (900)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 28.5¢	$570	$660	+$90	58% 31634-22891 (54525)
0xheavy888	Underavg 28.5¢	$228	$264	+$36	56% 6347-5081 (11428)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Underavg 63¢	$92.72	$93.74	+$1.02	65% 12546-6669 (19215)
└ Under leg	Underavg 63¢	$52.55	$53.39	+$0.83
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.8¢	$40.17	$40.35	+$0.18
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$87.5	$90	+$2.5	56% 2026-1581 (3607)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 45.2¢	$32.09	$42.21	+$10.12	51% 6525-6313 (12838)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 29¢	$28.18	$32.07	+$3.89	50% 8797-8727 (17524)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 70¢	$39.5	$26.47	-$13.03	58% 1451-1066 (2517)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Overavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.35	-$0.2	50% 615-610 (1225)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$10,479.62

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

55%

43485-35791 (79276)

Both legs:

Under$4,436.6928.4¢+$3.8K

Over$6,042.9356.6¢-$968.78

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,905.26

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,611.16

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

52%

16262-14802 (31064)

Cannae

Under

Invested

$2,096.24

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$327.18

Record

53%

13576-12017 (25593)

BBQChickenisthebestttCTR

Over

Invested

$1,759.97

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$123.75

Record

58%

523-377 (900)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$570

Value

$660

PnL

+$90

Record

58%

31634-22891 (54525)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$228

Value

$264

PnL

+$36

Record

56%

6347-5081 (11428)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Under

Invested

$92.72

Value

$93.74

PnL

+$1.02

Record

65%

12546-6669 (19215)

Both legs:

Under$52.5563¢+$0.83

Over$40.1735.8¢+$0.18

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$87.5

Value

$90

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

2026-1581 (3607)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$32.09

Value

$42.21

PnL

+$10.12

Record

51%

6525-6313 (12838)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$28.18

Value

$32.07

PnL

+$3.89

Record

50%

8797-8727 (17524)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.5

Value

$26.47

PnL

-$13.03

Record

58%

1451-1066 (2517)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

615-610 (1225)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.