FC Internazionale Milano vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 0.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 97¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$21.5K
$-2.1K
97.4¢ → 97¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Aleksey1993 | Overavg 97.5¢ | $10.0K | $8.5K | $-1.5K | 75% 131-43 (174) |
0F 0F62 | Overavg 97.5¢ | $8.0K | $6.8K | $-1.2K | 52% 1847-1685 (3532) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 96.9¢ | $5.1K | $4.3K | -$747.97 | 52% 16158-14689 (30847) |
 NooseracCTR | Underavg 2.5¢ | $250 | $1.8K | +$1.5K | 52% 5201-4780 (9981) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 97¢ | $227.95 | $193.88 | -$34.07 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 96.9¢ | $18.41 | $15.67 | -$2.74 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$10,000
Value
$8.5K
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
75%
131-43 (174)
Invested
$7,989.43
Value
$6.8K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
52%
1847-1685 (3532)
Invested
$5,055.25
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$747.97
Record
52%
16158-14689 (30847)
NooseracCTRInvested
$250
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
52%
5201-4780 (9981)
Invested
$227.95
Value
$193.88
PnL
-$34.07
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.41
Value
$15.67
PnL
-$2.74
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.