FC Internazionale Milano leading at halftime?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$533.98

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 99.5¢

+79% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,401

Combined PnL+$533.98

Yes1 trader

Total Value$26

Total Shares200

Combined PnL+$0

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 59.5¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$527.94	52% 16262-14802 (31064)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 51.4¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$504.81	55% 43485-35791 (79276)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.4¢	$838.43	$1.4K	+$580.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.3¢	$493.47	$418.11	-$75.36
VeryLucky888	Noavg 45¢	$286.36	$286.36	+$0	58% 31634-22891 (54525)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 45¢	$149.94	$149.94	+$0	50% 7751-7812 (15563)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 68.4¢	$32.92	$36.39	+$3.46	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
xfileCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$26	$26	+$0	42% 464-637 (1101)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 49.9¢	$9.62	$13.18	+$2.58	58% 1451-1066 (2517)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,427.02

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$527.94

Record

52%

16262-14802 (31064)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,331.89

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$504.81

Record

55%

43485-35791 (79276)

Both legs:

No$838.4351.4¢+$580.17

Yes$493.4715.3¢-$75.36

VeryLucky888

Invested

$286.36

Value

$286.36

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

31634-22891 (54525)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$149.94

Value

$149.94

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7751-7812 (15563)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$32.92

Value

$36.39

PnL

+$3.46

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

xfileCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26

Value

$26

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

464-637 (1101)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$9.62

Value

$13.18

PnL

+$2.58

Record

58%

1451-1066 (2517)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.