Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-10-25?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 88¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 25

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$24.93

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 87.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 88%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,875

Combined PnL+$21.68

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares13,372

Combined PnL-$46.61

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 89¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$0	69% 1702-781 (2483)
CA Cannae	Noavg 88.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$12.54	53% 13575-12013 (25588)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 88.6¢	$792.34	$796.1	+$3.76	68% 30977-14876 (45853)
0X 0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR	Yesavg 12¢	$838.66	$768.77	-$69.89	22% 47-166 (213)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$511.86	$511.86	+$23.28	52% 16225-14766 (30991)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 89¢	$425.48	$425.56	+$0.08	65% 1525-819 (2344)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 88¢	$384.08	$388.45	+$4.36	48% 919-980 (1899)
LM LmmmxYyqXz5221uCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$190.26	$190.26	-$0	— 1-4 (5)
JI jiafan	Noavg 89¢	$165.26	$165.26	+$0.93	61% 1302-828 (2130)
LonnieHawkins<$100	Noavg 89¢	$1.84	$1.84	+$0	51% 1557-1482 (3039)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,669.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

1702-781 (2483)

Cannae

Invested

$1,675.01

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$12.54

Record

53%

13575-12013 (25588)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$792.34

Value

$796.1

PnL

+$3.76

Record

68%

30977-14876 (45853)

0xE073BB69bd0D82a2f9b417A7B6Ac68656Ad89959-1766014458660CTR

Yes

Invested

$838.66

Value

$768.77

PnL

-$69.89

Record

22%

47-166 (213)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$511.86

Value

$511.86

PnL

+$23.28

Record

52%

16225-14766 (30991)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$425.48

Value

$425.56

PnL

+$0.08

Record

65%

1525-819 (2344)

forecastication4

Invested

$384.08

Value

$388.45

PnL

+$4.36

Record

48%

919-980 (1899)

LmmmxYyqXz5221uCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.26

Value

$190.26

PnL

-$0

Record

—

1-4 (5)

jiafan

Invested

$165.26

Value

$165.26

PnL

+$0.93

Record

61%

1302-828 (2130)

LonnieHawkins<$100

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1557-1482 (3039)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 88%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.