Exact Score: FC Internazionale Milano 3 - 1 ACF Fiorentina?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 96¢ · $983 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$982.84
-$142.73
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 91¢ | $771.72 | $581.58 | +$31.24 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 6¢ | $567.23 | $397.25 | -$169.97 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
JI jiafanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $8 | $4 | -$4 | 61% 1307-831 (2138) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.