Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?

15 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 98¢ · $61K held · ended Oct 25

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$61.1K

Combined PnL

$17.0K

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 97.8¢

+50% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 28 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$26.7K

Total Shares29,060

Combined PnL+$6.8K

Yes13 traders

Total Value$34.2K

Total Shares42,296

Combined PnL+$10.2K

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 66¢	$16.7K	$23.6K	+$6.9K	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 32.8¢	$10.4K	$16.3K	+$5.9K	56% 2026-1581 (3607)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 52.1¢	$7.9K	$8.0K	+$34.72	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 27.4¢	$3.7K	$7.7K	+$4.1K	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
0010001000001100CTR	Yesavg 18.5¢	$978.02	$1.3K	+$471.65	63% 1135-663 (1798)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 64.5¢	$756.22	$699.56	-$56.66	53% 12216-10949 (23165)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000	Noavg 66.4¢	$596.52	$664.97	+$68.45	41% 1602-2261 (3863)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 83¢	$518.64	$462.4	-$46.86	69% 4259-1919 (6178)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72.2¢	$289.24	$302.5	+$13.27	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
0xheavy888	Noavg 83¢	$332	$292	-$40	56% 6353-5083 (11436)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$289.25	$247.27	-$41.98	65% 12546-6670 (19216)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.6¢	$216.91	$167.14	-$49.76
└ No leg	Noavg 87.1¢	$72.35	$80.13	+$7.78
C6 C63AMG	Noavg 20¢	$200	$225	+$25	73% 848-313 (1161)
PA pauleta23CTR	Yesavg 51.9¢	$138.82	$221.27	+$82.46	71% 17581-7136 (24717)
RO Rocky31	Noavg 92.1¢	$222.05	$178.34	-$43.71	72% 1256-477 (1733)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 34.6¢	$174.93	$174.6	-$0.33	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
SE seeeeeebCTR	Yesavg 66.3¢	$132.61	$170	+$37.39	48% 332-366 (698)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 61.2¢	$88.69	$77.41	-$11.28	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$69.62	$77.38	+$7.76	56% 465-363 (828)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 22.4¢	$445	$70.67	-$374.33	59% 13892-9640 (23532)
TO torta.tech<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$66.3	$65.53	-$0.77	75% 6118-2030 (8148)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.8¢	$78	$54.28	-$23.72	46% 1530-1774 (3304)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$51.03	$51.03	+$0	66% 2852-1491 (4343)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$37.98	$38.47	+$0.49	58% 16124-11772 (27896)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Noavg 67¢	$34.3	$37.37	+$3.07	52% 216-197 (413)
AD adururu<$100	Noavg 67¢	$34.3	$37.37	+$3.07	54% 289-245 (534)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$16,725.31

Value

$23.6K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,432.94

Value

$16.3K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

56%

2026-1581 (3607)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$7,941.49

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$34.72

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,667.93

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

0010001000001100CTR

Yes

Invested

$978.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$471.65

Record

63%

1135-663 (1798)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$756.22

Value

$699.56

PnL

-$56.66

Record

53%

12216-10949 (23165)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000

Invested

$596.52

Value

$664.97

PnL

+$68.45

Record

41%

1602-2261 (3863)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$518.64

Value

$462.4

PnL

-$46.86

Record

69%

4259-1919 (6178)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$289.24

Value

$302.5

PnL

+$13.27

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

0xheavy888

Invested

$332

Value

$292

PnL

-$40

Record

56%

6353-5083 (11436)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$289.25

Value

$247.27

PnL

-$41.98

Record

65%

12546-6670 (19216)

Both legs:

Yes$216.914.6¢-$49.76

No$72.3587.1¢+$7.78

C63AMG

Invested

$200

Value

$225

PnL

+$25

Record

73%

848-313 (1161)

pauleta23CTR

Yes

Invested

$138.82

Value

$221.27

PnL

+$82.46

Record

71%

17581-7136 (24717)

Rocky31

Invested

$222.05

Value

$178.34

PnL

-$43.71

Record

72%

1256-477 (1733)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$174.93

Value

$174.6

PnL

-$0.33

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

seeeeeebCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.61

Value

$170

PnL

+$37.39

Record

48%

332-366 (698)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.69

Value

$77.41

PnL

-$11.28

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

averagejoetraders<$100

Invested

$69.62

Value

$77.38

PnL

+$7.76

Record

56%

465-363 (828)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$445

Value

$70.67

PnL

-$374.33

Record

59%

13892-9640 (23532)

torta.tech<$100

Invested

$66.3

Value

$65.53

PnL

-$0.77

Record

75%

6118-2030 (8148)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78

Value

$54.28

PnL

-$23.72

Record

46%

1530-1774 (3304)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.03

Value

$51.03

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

2852-1491 (4343)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$37.98

Value

$38.47

PnL

+$0.49

Record

58%

16124-11772 (27896)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Invested

$34.3

Value

$37.37

PnL

+$3.07

Record

52%

216-197 (413)

adururu<$100

Invested

$34.3

Value

$37.37

PnL

+$3.07

Record

54%

289-245 (534)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 28 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.