FC Internazionale Milano vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 52¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25

Yes52¢No48¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 52¢

-14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares12,219

Combined PnL$-1.0K

No7 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,170

Combined PnL-$239.79

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA DaBossHogg	Yesavg 55¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$163.64	48% 121-129 (250)
JohnLKellyJr	Yesavg 40.9¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$390	53% 907-795 (1702)
ZX zxc368	Yesavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$1.3K	$-1.2K	99% 8910-125 (9035)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 61¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$326.1	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
RN1CTR	Noavg 45¢	$692.04	$737.85	+$45.8	55% 43492-35800 (79292)
FO fooooolCTR	Noavg 46.7¢	$394.16	$393.34	-$0.82	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 59.8¢	$465.05	$360.61	-$52.44	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 40.8¢	$150.78	$177.47	+$26.68	53% 13577-12018 (25595)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 45.9¢	$84.4	$88.22	+$3.82	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 56.6¢	$47.92	$44.02	-$3.9	63% 22561-13320 (35881)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$4.48	$19.55	+$15.07	41% 1602-2261 (3863)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$20.53	$16.29	-$4.24	58% 1460-1073 (2533)

DaBossHogg

Yes

Invested

$3,000

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$163.64

Record

48%

121-129 (250)

JohnLKellyJr

Yes

Invested

$1,430

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$390

Record

53%

907-795 (1702)

zxc368

Yes

Invested

$2,484.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

99%

8910-125 (9035)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,604.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$326.1

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

RN1CTR

Invested

$692.04

Value

$737.85

PnL

+$45.8

Record

55%

43492-35800 (79292)

fooooolCTR

Invested

$394.16

Value

$393.34

PnL

-$0.82

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$465.05

Value

$360.61

PnL

-$52.44

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$150.78

Value

$177.47

PnL

+$26.68

Record

53%

13577-12018 (25595)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$84.4

Value

$88.22

PnL

+$3.82

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.92

Value

$44.02

PnL

-$3.9

Record

63%

22561-13320 (35881)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Invested

$4.48

Value

$19.55

PnL

+$15.07

Record

41%

1602-2261 (3863)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$20.53

Value

$16.29

PnL

-$4.24

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.