Will Venezia FC win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 76¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$110.23

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 75.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,838

Combined PnL+$89.42

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,124

Combined PnL+$20.81

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$88.77	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
LZ lzh1CTR	Yesavg 28¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$35.71	43% 409-543 (952)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$845.72	$844.27	-$1.46	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.2¢	$551.51	$561.48	+$9.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.5¢	$294.22	$282.79	-$11.43
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 25.7¢	$532.59	$536.37	-$4.66	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.7¢	$382.78	$379.17	-$3.6
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$149.81	$157.2	-$1.06
MA Marios15tCTR	Yesavg 30¢	$400	$387.08	-$12.92	50% 77-77 (154)
HRTrading	Noavg 73.3¢	$109.91	$111.06	+$1.15	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 75¢	$75	$74.5	-$0.5	53% 12219-10953 (23172)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$58.25	$56.18	-$2.07	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.33	$1.55	+$0.08	53% 13578-12019 (25597)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,591.56

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$88.77

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

lzh1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$35.71

Record

43%

409-543 (952)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$845.72

Value

$844.27

PnL

-$1.46

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

Both legs:

No$551.5173.2¢+$9.97

Yes$294.2226.5¢-$11.43

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$532.59

Value

$536.37

PnL

-$4.66

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

Both legs:

Invested

$400

Value

$387.08

PnL

-$12.92

Record

50%

77-77 (154)

HRTrading

Invested

$109.91

Value

$111.06

PnL

+$1.15

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$75

Value

$74.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

12219-10953 (23172)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.25

Value

$56.18

PnL

-$2.07

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.