Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC: O/U 4.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 96¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$7.4K
$59.3
87.2¢ → 96¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SB sbimbg | Underavg 87¢ | $6.5K | $7.2K | +$75 | 64% 2183-1209 (3392) |
 RN1 | Underavg 96¢ | $111.51 | $111.51 | +$0 | 55% 43593-35871 (79464) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 88¢ | $70.4 | $76.8 | -$0.4 | 54% 13818-11600 (25418) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $19.89 | $4.59 | -$15.3 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
Invested
$6,524.93
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$75
Record
64%
2183-1209 (3392)
RN1Invested
$111.51
Value
$111.51
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
43593-35871 (79464)
Invested
$70.4
Value
$76.8
PnL
-$0.4
Record
54%
13818-11600 (25418)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$19.89
Value
$4.59
PnL
-$15.3
Record
57%
1491-1104 (2595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.