Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (66%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC: O/U 2.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 34¢ · $181K held · ended Oct 25

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$180.6K

Combined PnL

$347.27

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 34¢

-34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Under 66%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$103.2K

Total Shares200,601

Combined PnL+$290.39

Under9 traders

Total Value$69.6K

Total Shares140,746

Combined PnL+$56.89

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Overavg 51.4¢	$99.7K	$99.9K	+$210.52	46% 368-428 (796)
KY Kyn008	Underavg 49¢	$37.8K	$38.2K	+$386.15	50% 191-188 (379)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 49.4¢	$22.5K	$22.1K	-$409.19	50% 1012-1005 (2017)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 48.3¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	+$57.32	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$15.27
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$42.05
RN1	Underavg 48¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$50	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 50¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$15.94	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$69.82	53% 898-789 (1687)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$27.32	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.59
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$424.38	$437.11	+$12.73
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10	69% 4261-1921 (6182)
StudyPrediction	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$990	-$30	51% 3587-3459 (7046)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 49.4¢	$1.4K	$485	+$11.46	58% 31660-22917 (54577)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 55.3¢	$244.84	$292.05	+$47.21	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
FO foooool	Underavg 58.8¢	$129.49	$145.44	+$15.95	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$124.73	$121.93	-$2.8	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$70.73	$67.39	-$3.34
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$54	$54.54	+$0.54
AN Anon455	Underavg 48¢	$120	$121.25	+$1.25	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$3.9	$3.95	+$0.05	50% 2984-3011 (5995)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Over

Invested

$99,666.91

Value

$99.9K

PnL

+$210.52

Record

46%

368-428 (796)

Kyn008

Under

Invested

$37,842.38

Value

$38.2K

PnL

+$386.15

Record

50%

191-188 (379)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$22,513.51

Value

$22.1K

PnL

-$409.19

Record

50%

1012-1005 (2017)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,663.8

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$57.32

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

Both legs:

Under$4,26948.3¢+$15.27

Over$1,394.850¢+$42.05

RN1

Under

Invested

$4,800

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$50

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$2,433.42

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$15.94

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,234.07

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$69.82

Record

53%

898-789 (1687)

CannaeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,824.77

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$27.32

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

Both legs:

Under$1,400.3948¢+$14.59

Over$424.3850¢+$12.73

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

69%

4261-1921 (6182)

StudyPrediction

Under

Invested

$1,020

Value

$990

PnL

-$30

Record

51%

3587-3459 (7046)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,415.62

Value

$485

PnL

+$11.46

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$244.84

Value

$292.05

PnL

+$47.21

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

foooool

Under

Invested

$129.49

Value

$145.44

PnL

+$15.95

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$124.73

Value

$121.93

PnL

-$2.8

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

Both legs:

Invested

$120

Value

$121.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

LaarsYCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

2984-3011 (5995)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Under 66%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.