Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 9 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-10-25?

9 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (41%) · Yes at 43¢ · $190K held · ended Oct 25

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 41%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$190.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

42.5¢ → 42.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 22 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$90.5K

Total Shares215,057

Combined PnL$-1.0K

No13 traders

Total Value$62.4K

Total Shares106,908

Combined PnL-$881.47

Yes — 41%No — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL Bloodygoodrep1CTR	Yesavg 42¢	$44.7K	$44.7K	-$0	48% 37-40 (77)
KC Kch-TempCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$41.9K	$40.9K	-$974.56	51% 191-182 (373)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 57¢	$23.5K	$23.3K	-$215.66	50% 191-188 (379)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$17.8K	$17.4K	-$390.48	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.5¢	$11.6K	$11.0K	-$603.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44¢	$6.2K	$6.5K	+$212.76
CA Cannae	Noavg 57.6¢	$12.3K	$12.4K	+$93.08	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
AN Anon455	Noavg 56.8¢	$11.6K	$11.2K	-$587.18	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 55.6¢	$10.7K	$10.5K	-$203.6	55% 43532-35822 (79354)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.6¢	$8.6K	$8.3K	-$322.35
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$118.75
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$9.4K	$9.3K	-$189.84	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.5¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$82.58
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.5¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$107.27
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 58¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$0	50% 7759-7812 (15571)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 56.7¢	$4.6K	$4.1K	-$177.93	58% 31660-22917 (54577)
SP sport-intelligenceCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$0	36% 96-171 (267)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 58¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$0.13	69% 4261-1921 (6182)
SL slimjoe	Noavg 57.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$11.05	52% 5353-4968 (10321)
StudyPrediction	Noavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$10	51% 3587-3459 (7046)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$690	$682.5	-$7.5	51% 979-932 (1911)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 58¢	$670.77	$670.77	+$0	50% 8804-8737 (17541)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 44.7¢	$592.76	$582.96	-$9.8	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
MO mooseborzoii	Noavg 54¢	$429.73	$433.71	+$3.98	50% 1012-1005 (2017)
MA manoamanoCTR	Yesavg 44¢	$340.79	$325.3	-$15.49	70% 393-171 (564)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 56.9¢	$250.97	$246.65	-$4.32	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
└ No leg	Noavg 56.9¢	$187.33	$179.31	-$8.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$63.64	$67.34	+$3.7
HRTradingCTR	Yesavg 44¢	$240.98	$234.69	-$6.29	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
0xheavy888	Noavg 55¢	$220	$218	-$2	56% 6354-5091 (11445)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$54.35	$56.56	+$2.21	53% 12219-10953 (23172)
JI jiafanCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$48.89	$46.67	-$2.22	61% 1308-831 (2139)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Noavg 53¢	$18.04	$19.75	+$0.85	55% 3854-3161 (7015)

Bloodygoodrep1CTR

Yes

Invested

$44,715.64

Value

$44.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

37-40 (77)

Kch-TempCTR

Yes

Invested

$41,906.13

Value

$40.9K

PnL

-$974.56

Record

51%

191-182 (373)

Kyn008

Invested

$23,493.26

Value

$23.3K

PnL

-$215.66

Record

50%

191-188 (379)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$17,797.21

Value

$17.4K

PnL

-$390.48

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

Both legs:

No$11,556.2157.5¢-$603.24

Yes$6,24144¢+$212.76

Cannae

Invested

$12,265.19

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$93.08

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

Anon455

Invested

$11,585.86

Value

$11.2K

PnL

-$587.18

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$10,721.39

Value

$10.5K

PnL

-$203.6

Record

55%

43532-35822 (79354)

Both legs:

No$8,631.3955.6¢-$322.35

Yes$2,09044¢+$118.75

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$9,449.65

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$189.84

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

Both legs:

No$4,825.357.5¢-$82.58

Yes$4,624.3544.5¢-$107.27

LuckyLoo

Invested

$5,419.23

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7759-7812 (15571)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$4,595.55

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$177.93

Record

58%

31660-22917 (54577)

sport-intelligenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

96-171 (267)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,319.86

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$0.13

Record

69%

4261-1921 (6182)

slimjoe

Invested

$1,259.73

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$11.05

Record

52%

5353-4968 (10321)

StudyPrediction

Invested

$1,099.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

3587-3459 (7046)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Yes

Invested

$690

Value

$682.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

51%

979-932 (1911)

SnakeBall

Invested

$670.77

Value

$670.77

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

8804-8737 (17541)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$592.76

Value

$582.96

PnL

-$9.8

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

mooseborzoii

Invested

$429.73

Value

$433.71

PnL

+$3.98

Record

50%

1012-1005 (2017)

manoamanoCTR

Yes

Invested

$340.79

Value

$325.3

PnL

-$15.49

Record

70%

393-171 (564)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$250.97

Value

$246.65

PnL

-$4.32

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

Both legs:

Invested

$240.98

Value

$234.69

PnL

-$6.29

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

0xheavy888

Invested

$220

Value

$218

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

6354-5091 (11445)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$54.35

Value

$56.56

PnL

+$2.21

Record

53%

12219-10953 (23172)

jiafanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.89

Value

$46.67

PnL

-$2.22

Record

61%

1308-831 (2139)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Invested

$18.04

Value

$19.75

PnL

+$0.85

Record

55%

3854-3161 (7015)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 22 top traders (41%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.