Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Genoa CFC 1 - 1 Venezia FC?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 18¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$3.4K
$52.31
14.8¢ → 18¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 82¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$0.79 | 55% 43593-35871 (79464) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $980 | $1.3K | -$34.93 | 64% 2183-1209 (3392) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 16¢ | $722.11 | $810.14 | +$88.03 | 68% 31181-14989 (46170) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.