Will Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 77¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$26.26

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 76.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares7,626

Combined PnL-$535.5

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,961

Combined PnL+$561.76

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 78.1¢	$4.4K	$3.8K	-$505.28	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 21.3¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$557.89	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 77.9¢	$697.85	$681.17	-$16.68	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
oieshfn345	Noavg 75.1¢	$602.08	$592.68	-$9.39	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 76¢	$122.37	$125.01	+$2.63	53% 12226-10956 (23182)
└ No leg	Noavg 76¢	$76	$73.5	-$2.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.9¢	$46.37	$51.51	+$5.13
TO torta.tech	Noavg 74¢	$115.44	$114.66	-$0.78	75% 6121-2030 (8151)
CA Cannae	Noavg 70¢	$114.82	$113.16	-$1.66	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$42.92	$45.88	-$0.74	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$18.4	$17.25	-$1.15	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$15.8	$15.25	-$0.55	53% 1871-1637 (3508)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$8.05	$12.48	+$4.43	65% 12547-6672 (19219)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$4.33	$4.17	-$0.16	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$3.14	$3.47	+$0.34	51% 6565-6327 (12892)

Anon455

Invested

$4,353.02

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$505.28

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,225.35

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$557.89

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$697.85

Value

$681.17

PnL

-$16.68

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

oieshfn345

Invested

$602.08

Value

$592.68

PnL

-$9.39

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$122.37

Value

$125.01

PnL

+$2.63

Record

53%

12226-10956 (23182)

Both legs:

No$7676¢-$2.5

Yes$46.3723.9¢+$5.13

torta.tech

Invested

$115.44

Value

$114.66

PnL

-$0.78

Record

75%

6121-2030 (8151)

Cannae

Invested

$114.82

Value

$113.16

PnL

-$1.66

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.92

Value

$45.88

PnL

-$0.74

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$1.15

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$15.8

Value

$15.25

PnL

-$0.55

Record

53%

1871-1637 (3508)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.05

Value

$12.48

PnL

+$4.43

Record

65%

12547-6672 (19219)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.34

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.