Genoa CFC vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 57¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$3.01
48.4¢ → 57¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO torta.tech | Noavg 48.9¢ | $811.21 | $779.25 | -$31.96 | 75% 6121-2030 (8151) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 49.1¢ | $627.36 | $645.39 | +$18.03 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $282.67 | $282.65 | -$0.03 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 43.9¢ | $141.2 | $177.1 | +$6.92 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $121.99 | $126.75 | +$4.76 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54¢ | $75.06 | $66.72 | -$8.34 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43¢ | $46.94 | $60.03 | +$13.1 | |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $16.19 | $20.24 | +$4.05 | 56% 6357-5092 (11449) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 51.3¢ | $5.39 | $5.36 | -$0.03 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
Invested
$811.21
Value
$779.25
PnL
-$31.96
Record
75%
6121-2030 (8151)
Invested
$627.36
Value
$645.39
PnL
+$18.03
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$282.67
Value
$282.65
PnL
-$0.03
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
Invested
$141.2
Value
$177.1
PnL
+$6.92
Record
54%
13815-11594 (25409)
Invested
$121.99
Value
$126.75
PnL
+$4.76
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
Both legs:
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$16.19
Value
$20.24
PnL
+$4.05
Record
56%
6357-5092 (11449)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.39
Value
$5.36
PnL
-$0.03
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.