Atalanta BC vs. Frosinone Calcio: O/U 6.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 100%
$2.3K
$1.4K
34.9¢ → 87¢
+149% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 87%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 37.1¢ | $704.25 | $1.7K | +$948.75 | 55% 43593-35871 (79464) |
FO foooool | Overavg 29.3¢ | $229.66 | $667.18 | +$437.52 | 51% 6573-6335 (12908) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $4.54 | $8.05 | +$3.51 | 56% 2033-1584 (3617) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.