Atalanta BC vs. Frosinone Calcio: O/U 3.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 52¢ · $36K held · ends Oct 25

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

Total Value

$35.6K

Combined PnL

$117.08

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 51.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$21.4K

Total Shares41,605

Combined PnL+$350.99

Under5 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares29,197

Combined PnL-$233.9

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradona	Overavg 50.8¢	$20.3K	$20.6K	+$294.8	— 4-2 (6)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Underavg 49¢	$9.8K	$9.7K	-$100	47% 1955-2177 (4132)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 50.3¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$106.91	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 49¢	$980	$970	-$10	69% 4216-1907 (6123)
RA rabbitfoot1	Overavg 48¢	$770.52	$826.7	+$56.18	53% 876-768 (1644)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 49.8¢	$390.65	$380.68	-$9.97	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 49.9¢	$246.61	$239.59	-$7.02	54% 13697-11517 (25214)

hovistomaradona

Over

Invested

$20,305.21

Value

$20.6K

PnL

+$294.8

Record

—

4-2 (6)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Under

Invested

$9,800

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$100

Record

47%

1955-2177 (4132)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$2,976.99

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$106.91

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$980

Value

$970

PnL

-$10

Record

69%

4216-1907 (6123)

rabbitfoot1

Over

Invested

$770.52

Value

$826.7

PnL

+$56.18

Record

53%

876-768 (1644)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$390.65

Value

$380.68

PnL

-$9.97

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$246.61

Value

$239.59

PnL

-$7.02

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.