Atalanta BC vs. Frosinone Calcio: O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 73¢ · $77 held · ends Oct 25

Over73¢Under27¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$76.63

Combined PnL

$0.59

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over73%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$48.96

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$1.26

Under2 traders

Total Value$27.66

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$0.67

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 72¢	$42.44	$43.03	+$0.59	52% 16262-14802 (31064)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 28.6¢	$17.17	$16.2	-$0.67	53% 13576-12017 (25593)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$11.47	$11.47	-$0	54% 13805-11589 (25394)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Overavg 63¢	$5.66	$5.93	+$0.67	55% 3839-3157 (6996)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$42.44

Value

$43.03

PnL

+$0.59

Record

52%

16262-14802 (31064)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.17

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$0.67

Record

53%

13576-12017 (25593)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.47

Value

$11.47

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

13805-11589 (25394)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Over

Invested

$5.66

Value

$5.93

PnL

+$0.67

Record

55%

3839-3157 (6996)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.