Atalanta BC vs. Frosinone Calcio: O/U 1.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 97¢ · $256 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$256.44
-$9.86
97.4¢ → 97.2¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool | Overavg 97.6¢ | $227.6 | $226.67 | -$0.93 | 51% 6565-6327 (12892) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $16.3 | $16.29 | +$1.13 | 72% 1257-477 (1734) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.72 | -$0.27 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 10.1¢ | $13.55 | $3.76 | -$9.79 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
Invested
$227.6
Value
$226.67
PnL
-$0.93
Record
51%
6565-6327 (12892)
Invested
$16.3
Value
$16.29
PnL
+$1.13
Record
72%
1257-477 (1734)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.72
PnL
-$0.27
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
Invested
$13.55
Value
$3.76
PnL
-$9.79
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.