Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Frosinone Calcio (60%) · Frosinone Calcio at 91¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Atalanta BC10¢Frosinone Calcio90¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Frosinone Calcio

Consensus Traders

Frosinone Calcio 60%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$394.41

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 90.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFrosinone Calcio at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Frosinone Calcio

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Atalanta BC10%

Frosinone Calcio91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Frosinone Calcio3 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares7,655

Combined PnL+$760.95

Atalanta BC2 traders

Total Value$157.15

Total Shares3,143

Combined PnL-$366.54

Frosinone Calcio — 60%Atalanta BC — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Frosinone Calcioavg 84.9¢	$6.4K	$7.2K	+$758.53	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Atalanta BCavg 17.1¢	$518.47	$151.93	-$366.54	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
FO foooool	Frosinone Calcioavg 93¢	$102.45	$104.6	+$2.15	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
RN1CTR<$100	Atalanta BCavg 5¢	$5.22	$5.22	+$0	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
HRTrading<$100	Frosinone Calcioavg 86¢	$2.58	$2.85	+$0.27	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

GoalLineGhost

Frosinone Calcio

Invested

$6,405.8

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$758.53

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

UpTheBluesCTR

Atalanta BC

Invested

$518.47

Value

$151.93

PnL

-$366.54

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

foooool

Frosinone Calcio

Invested

$102.45

Value

$104.6

PnL

+$2.15

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

RN1CTR<$100

Atalanta BC

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

HRTrading<$100

Frosinone Calcio

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.27

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralFrosinone Calcio at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Frosinone Calcio

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Frosinone Calcio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.