Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (31%) · Yes at 50¢ · $26K held · ended Oct 25

Yes50¢No50¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 31%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

$-4.2K

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 49.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares18,780

Combined PnL$-4.1K

No9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,520

Combined PnL-$33.78

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$6.3K	$7.2K	+$897.39	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.5¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$100
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.7¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$797.39
RO robustmstCTR	Yesavg 48.4¢	$10.5K	$5.3K	$-4.1K	48% 85-92 (177)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 52¢	$3.9K	$5.0K	+$1.1K	52% 16273-14816 (31089)
└ No leg	Noavg 52¢	$2.9K	$4.0K	+$1.1K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$999.22	$1.0K	+$17.84
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$288.81	68% 31121-14960 (46081)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$561.64
└ No leg	Noavg 67.5¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$272.84
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$15	51% 979-932 (1911)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 51.6¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$7.51	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$27.96
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.3¢	$380.28	$415.75	+$35.47
GH ghostorder	Noavg 51¢	$459	$472.5	+$13.5	68% 3930-1880 (5810)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 51¢	$378.61	$389.75	+$11.14	65% 12547-6671 (19218)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 72.5¢	$189.14	$189.33	+$0.19	54% 13813-11594 (25407)
CA Cannae	Noavg 72¢	$177.64	$181.75	+$4.11	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
FO foooool	Noavg 64.9¢	$176.44	$142.65	-$33.79	51% 6539-6324 (12863)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$150.87	$138.53	-$12.34	53% 12219-10953 (23172)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.2¢	$108.74	$90.28	-$18.45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.5¢	$42.13	$48.24	+$6.11
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 68.8¢	$71.74	$52.65	-$19.09	58% 1463-1078 (2541)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$51.87	$50.02	-$1.85	66% 2852-1493 (4345)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$31.64	$32.99	+$1.35	52% 5508-5116 (10624)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 59¢	$18	$21.81	+$3.81	46% 1530-1778 (3308)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$5.16	$5.06	-$0.1	58% 16134-11777 (27911)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.2¢	$2.55	$2.19	-$0.36	55% 4844-4028 (8872)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$6,265.6

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$897.39

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

Both legs:

No$5,15051.5¢+$100

Yes$1,115.627.7¢+$797.39

robustmstCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,500

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

48%

85-92 (177)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$3,912.92

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

16273-14816 (31089)

Both legs:

No$2,913.752¢+$1.1K

Yes$999.2228¢+$17.84

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$2,738.95

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$288.81

Record

68%

31121-14960 (46081)

Both legs:

Yes$1,325.4332¢+$561.64

No$1,413.5267.5¢-$272.84

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$15

Record

51%

979-932 (1911)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$1,716.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$7.51

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

Both legs:

No$1,336.1451.6¢-$27.96

Yes$380.2845.3¢+$35.47

ghostorder

Invested

$459

Value

$472.5

PnL

+$13.5

Record

68%

3930-1880 (5810)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$378.61

Value

$389.75

PnL

+$11.14

Record

65%

12547-6671 (19218)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$189.14

Value

$189.33

PnL

+$0.19

Record

54%

13813-11594 (25407)

Cannae

Invested

$177.64

Value

$181.75

PnL

+$4.11

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

foooool

Invested

$176.44

Value

$142.65

PnL

-$33.79

Record

51%

6539-6324 (12863)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$150.87

Value

$138.53

PnL

-$12.34

Record

53%

12219-10953 (23172)

Both legs:

No$108.7463.2¢-$18.45

Yes$42.1341.5¢+$6.11

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$71.74

Value

$52.65

PnL

-$19.09

Record

58%

1463-1078 (2541)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.87

Value

$50.02

PnL

-$1.85

Record

66%

2852-1493 (4345)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$31.64

Value

$32.99

PnL

+$1.35

Record

52%

5508-5116 (10624)

123987456<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$21.81

PnL

+$3.81

Record

46%

1530-1778 (3308)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

16134-11777 (27911)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.19

PnL

-$0.36

Record

55%

4844-4028 (8872)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.