Exact Score: Atalanta BC 1 - 1 Frosinone Calcio?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$230.42

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 99.9¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,768

Combined PnL+$230.42

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 90¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$176.36	50% 7761-7812 (15573)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 90.7¢	$825	$909.09	+$51.33	58% 31667-22925 (54592)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 90.6¢	$66.11	$72.93	+$2.73	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.74	$3.74	+$0	58% 1472-1088 (2560)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,603.26

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$176.36

Record

50%

7761-7812 (15573)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$825

Value

$909.09

PnL

+$51.33

Record

58%

31667-22925 (54592)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$66.11

Value

$72.93

PnL

+$2.73

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.74

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.