Will Atalanta BC vs. Frosinone Calcio end in a draw?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 79¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$110.9

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 78.5¢

+4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,801

Combined PnL+$114.99

Yes4 traders

Total Value$68.46

Total Shares292

Combined PnL-$4.09

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$100.24	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
└ No leg	Noavg 77¢	$3.5K	$3.1K	-$386.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.9¢	$656.24	$942.65	+$286.41
AN Anon455	Noavg 73¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$105.17	56% 2027-1581 (3608)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 78¢	$833	$838.34	+$5.34	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 80¢	$400	$397.5	-$2.5	51% 980-932 (1912)
oieshfn345	Noavg 79¢	$141.18	$142.08	+$0.89	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 80¢	$105.15	$101.21	-$3.94	65% 12547-6672 (19219)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$91.07	$94.16	+$3.09	53% 12226-10956 (23182)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$55.76	$62.01	+$6.25	58% 16138-11779 (27917)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 77¢	$50.43	$50.43	+$0.33	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$25.88	$23.44	-$2.45	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$16.94	$19.48	+$2.54	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$15.15	$15.4	+$0.25	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$14.4	$13.8	-$0.6	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$15.33	$11.74	-$3.59	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 76¢	$9.12	$9.24	+$0.12	53% 13578-12019 (25597)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$4,157.25

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$100.24

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

Both legs:

No$3,501.0177¢-$386.66

Yes$656.2421.9¢+$286.41

Anon455

Invested

$1,919.34

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$105.17

Record

56%

2027-1581 (3608)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$833

Value

$838.34

PnL

+$5.34

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$400

Value

$397.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

980-932 (1912)

oieshfn345

Invested

$141.18

Value

$142.08

PnL

+$0.89

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$105.15

Value

$101.21

PnL

-$3.94

Record

65%

12547-6672 (19219)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$91.07

Value

$94.16

PnL

+$3.09

Record

53%

12226-10956 (23182)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$55.76

Value

$62.01

PnL

+$6.25

Record

58%

16138-11779 (27917)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$50.43

Value

$50.43

PnL

+$0.33

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.88

Value

$23.44

PnL

-$2.45

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.94

Value

$19.48

PnL

+$2.54

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$15.15

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$0.25

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.4

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$0.6

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.33

Value

$11.74

PnL

-$3.59

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$9.12

Value

$9.24

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.