Atalanta BC vs. Frosinone Calcio: O/U 10.5 Total Corners
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 51¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$20.9K
-$199.67
49¢ → 51¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 49¢ | $19.4K | $19.2K | -$186.86 | 59% 13892-9640 (23532) |
SA Saber-greed | Overavg 48.9¢ | $916.75 | $908.64 | -$8.11 | 59% 2262-1574 (3836) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 51¢ | $255 | $252.55 | +$2.55 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR | Underavg 52¢ | $250 | $247.59 | -$2.4 | 52% 87-80 (167) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Underavg 51.2¢ | $174.96 | $169.11 | -$5.85 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $103.13 | $104.14 | +$1.01 | 50% 8802-8735 (17537) |
Invested
$19,372.88
Value
$19.2K
PnL
-$186.86
Record
59%
13892-9640 (23532)
Invested
$916.75
Value
$908.64
PnL
-$8.11
Record
59%
2262-1574 (3836)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$255
Value
$252.55
PnL
+$2.55
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$250
Value
$247.59
PnL
-$2.4
Record
52%
87-80 (167)
Invested
$174.96
Value
$169.11
PnL
-$5.85
Record
54%
13809-11592 (25401)
Invested
$103.13
Value
$104.14
PnL
+$1.01
Record
50%
8802-8735 (17537)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.