Atalanta BC vs. Frosinone Calcio: Both Teams to Score

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 88¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes88¢No12¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$165.66

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 88¢

+14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,522

Combined PnL+$167.97

No2 traders

Total Value$8.04

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$2.32

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Yesavg 71.3¢	$747.21	$922.02	+$174.81	56% 6357-5092 (11449)
FO foooool	Yesavg 89.4¢	$424.11	$417.27	-$6.84	51% 6565-6327 (12892)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 11.4¢	$5.73	$6.04	+$0.31	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 27.7¢	$4.62	$2	-$2.62	53% 13578-12019 (25597)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$747.21

Value

$922.02

PnL

+$174.81

Record

56%

6357-5092 (11449)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$424.11

Value

$417.27

PnL

-$6.84

Record

51%

6565-6327 (12892)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.31

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$4.62

Value

PnL

-$2.62

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.