Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 49¢ · $461 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$461.06
-$14.01
46.4¢ → 48.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46.4¢ | $843.31 | $240.01 | -$13.01 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $114.99 | $116.04 | +$1.05 | 54% 13805-11589 (25394) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48¢ | $61.44 | $61.44 | +$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51¢ | $53.55 | $54.6 | +$1.05 | |
JI jiafan | Yesavg 52¢ | $104 | $102 | -$1 | 61% 1304-831 (2135) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $1.57 | $1.57 | -$0 | 58% 1451-1066 (2517) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $1.45 | $1.44 | +$0 | 53% 13576-12017 (25593) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$843.31
Value
$240.01
PnL
-$13.01
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
Invested
$114.99
Value
$116.04
PnL
+$1.05
Record
54%
13805-11589 (25394)
Both legs:
Invested
$104
Value
$102
PnL
-$1
Record
61%
1304-831 (2135)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.57
Value
$1.57
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
1451-1066 (2517)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.44
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
13576-12017 (25593)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.