Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (98%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Motherwell FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 5.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 1.9¢ · $15 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 75%
$15.46
-$15.76
Research grade
AvoidOver at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 5.1¢ | $24.99 | $9.31 | -$15.68 | 51% 6573-6335 (12908) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.91 | -$0.09 | 57% 1491-1104 (2595) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.9¢ | $1.14 | $1.14 | +$0 | 50% 7766-7815 (15581) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 1.7¢ | $0.09 | $0.1 | +$0.01 | 55% 43593-35871 (79464) |
Invested
$24.99
Value
$9.31
PnL
-$15.68
Record
51%
6573-6335 (12908)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5
Value
$4.91
PnL
-$0.09
Record
57%
1491-1104 (2595)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$1.14
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7766-7815 (15581)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.09
Value
$0.1
PnL
+$0.01
Record
55%
43593-35871 (79464)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.