Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 46¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$3.8K
$52.76
49.1¢ → 45.5¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$14.1 | 52% 16273-14816 (31089) |
RA rabbitfoot1CTR | Yesavg 48¢ | $2.6K | $1.3K | +$39.1 | 53% 898-789 (1687) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 51.4¢ | $502.11 | $507.51 | +$5.41 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 52.5¢ | $315 | $307.19 | -$2.81 | 58% 31660-22917 (54577) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $278.97 | $276.18 | -$2.79 | 68% 31121-14960 (46081) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.9¢ | $27.27 | $27.03 | -$0.24 | 58% 1463-1078 (2541) |
Invested
$1,409.61
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.1
Record
52%
16273-14816 (31089)
Invested
$2,599.93
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$39.1
Record
53%
898-789 (1687)
Invested
$502.11
Value
$507.51
PnL
+$5.41
Record
53%
13578-12019 (25597)
VeryLucky888Invested
$315
Value
$307.19
PnL
-$2.81
Record
58%
31660-22917 (54577)
Invested
$278.97
Value
$276.18
PnL
-$2.79
Record
68%
31121-14960 (46081)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$27.27
Value
$27.03
PnL
-$0.24
Record
58%
1463-1078 (2541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.