Hibernian FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 80¢ · $507 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$507.06
-$39.07
56.5¢ → 79.5¢
+41% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 54.9¢ | $438.07 | $409.77 | -$28.3 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 74.2¢ | $25.61 | $26.76 | +$1.14 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
LA LaarsYCTR<$100 | Overavg 46.5¢ | $24.11 | $23.02 | -$1.09 | 50% 2984-3010 (5994) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 75.7¢ | $23.1 | $22.59 | -$0.51 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $29.71 | $19.62 | -$10.09 | 51% 6539-6324 (12863) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 22.9¢ | $2.19 | $4.77 | +$0.24 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $1 | $0.52 | -$0.48 | 50% 7758-7812 (15570) |
Invested
$438.07
Value
$409.77
PnL
-$28.3
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
RN1<$100Invested
$25.61
Value
$26.76
PnL
+$1.14
Record
55%
43492-35800 (79292)
Invested
$24.11
Value
$23.02
PnL
-$1.09
Record
50%
2984-3010 (5994)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$23.1
Value
$22.59
PnL
-$0.51
Record
58%
31642-22900 (54542)
Invested
$29.71
Value
$19.62
PnL
-$10.09
Record
51%
6539-6324 (12863)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.19
Value
$4.77
PnL
+$0.24
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$0.48
Record
50%
7758-7812 (15570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.